Net read: the order is sound on the things that matter. The core single-color suspenders and ties are all in, mostly rounded UP to full cartons, and they took Tie-Black even higher than I did. The 28% gap is almost entirely three line groups they pulled to zero. Two of those zeroes are probably right; one is the big question.
| Group | Their PO | My proj | Diff | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waffle bowties (all colors) | 0 | 12,500 | -12,500 | confirm |
| Tie-Black (hero) | 12,800 | 10,200 | +2,600 | biggest bet |
| Christmas / winter ties | 0 | 2,600 | -2,600 | likely right |
| Hero suspenders (Black + Red) | 8,160 | 10,080 | -1,920 | trim ~18% |
| Other suspender colors | 10,920 | 12,680 | -1,760 | minor |
| Sequin bowties | 3,200 | 4,664 | -1,464 | low-vol |
| Multipacks (6 / 12 pk) | 560 | 804 | -244 | low-vol |
| Other ties (striped, etc.) | 5,500 | 5,000 | +500 | aligned |
Every proven single-color suspender is on the PO, and most got nudged UP to a clean carton count vs my number (Brown 960 vs my 288, Navy 960 vs 720, Blue / Orange 720 vs 576). That is exactly the right instinct: never break a carton on a proven seller.
They ordered 12,800 (32 cartons, $9,600) vs my 10,200. Tie-Black is the revived hero (roughly 2,700 to 3,800 units/month per raw.sales_daily). I had left its size open because I could not tell if May's 150-200/day pace was a one-off. They committed to the aggressive cover. If the team has conviction Halloween repeats, this is the right aggressive line, but see the watch item below.
This single group is ~72% of the whole gap. I had Black 6,600 / Red 2,400 / White 1,200 plus 6 smaller colors. The PO orders none. My override numbers were already net of on-hand supply, so a zero here is a deliberate call, not a supply offset I missed. Three possibilities, worth one question to Ali/Rahim: (1) the waffle bowtie line is being discontinued, (2) there is large stock dated after my 6/18 read, or (3) it slipped. If it slipped, bowties are seasonal and the reorder window is already tight on lead time.
It is $9,600 of a $41,700 order (about 23%) and rests on the "2x Halloween" demand pace I never confirmed. June ran near 55/day vs the 150-200/day peak in May (raw.sales_daily). Not saying cut it, just make sure that 32-carton commitment is a conviction call and not carried over from my placeholder.
Black 4,080 vs my 5,184, Red 4,080 vs my 4,896. They standardized both to a flat 4,080. These are the most proven sellers in the catalog. The trim is within reason, but if last Halloween's sell-through holds, 4,080 each is the line most likely to leave units on the table. Cheap insurance to add one carton each if there is room.
Snowflakes, Santa, Let it Snow, Christmas Tree, Jingle Jaws and friends (about 2,600 units) are Nov-Dec sellers. My model pulled them in only because the horizon ran to Oct 31. Dropping them here is right, as long as there is a separate Christmas PO coming for them. Confirm that PO exists.
Low-volume, MOQ-sensitive SKUs. Trimming them frees cash for the core. No action.
18pSsKj2SP9...iGArdMQ tab "Master Sheet" (Units to order, PO Value), pulled 2026-06-22. Projection = "Ace Override" column AG of Dashboard 1TmQk3sKrLxS...ZDnb8, set 2026-06-18. Demand model: ace_override_oct31.py (peak-anchored, supply-netted). Sales pace: raw.fba_restock / raw.sales_daily. PO dollars are FOB China piece price, not landed or retail.